In the first half of this year, the domestic caustic soda market developed beyond the industry’s expectations. During the period, in addition to the favorable environment created by the rebound of macroeconomic recovery at home and abroad, natural disasters and partial safety accidents in Japan have indirectly pushed up the price of domestic caustic soda and cannot be ignored. . In the first half of the year, the cumulative output of caustic soda in our country was 123.51 million tons, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year. Industry insiders believe that the domestic caustic soda market pressure will gradually emerge in the second half of the year, and the trend of high price decline will be particularly evident in the third quarter.
——A large number of new production capacity release statistics found that the capacity of new domestic caustic soda plant was 2.965 million tons/year in the first half of this year, and the diaphragm alkali plant exited 295,000 tons/year at the same time, and the new production project that can be estimated in the second half of the current year can be estimated. There are about 3 million tons/year. Since most of the caustic soda is sold as liquid products, storage, transportation, and other aspects will be limited, the price fluctuations will be related to the release of new production capacity in a certain period of time or in an area.
——Alkaline chlorine balance restrained price increase The market price of caustic soda in various regions of China in the first half of 2011 can be basically summed up continuously, but it has experienced a roller coaster-type change in the case of ** born out of caustic soda production. In March of this year, the average ex-factory price of domestic merchandise was 1600 yuan (t price, the same below), while the highest price in some parts of Shandong reached 2,000 yuan. In mid-to-late June, it was as low as 100 to 200 yuan. It is estimated that about 3 million tons/year of caustic soda will be released in the second half of this year, and 2.27 million tons/year of new PVC production will be expected. It is undeniable that in addition to the PVC of bulk products, many of the supporting chlorine products will be refined. The development of chlorine consumption products, but the balance between supply and demand will cause changes in the production or price of caustic soda in the second half of the year.
- Exports gradually eased Affected by the major earthquakes in Japan and centralized overhaul of foreign installations, Japan, South Korea and China Taiwan as the representatives of the main export market of liquid caustic soda in Northeast Asia have significantly reduced the supply in the second quarter of this year, strong and vigorous It has pulled back the export price of caustic soda in China. The world’s reduction in the supply of caustic soda and the steady two-way promotion of market demand in the United States, Australia, and Southeast Asia have also led to a substantial increase in the export prices of caustic soda in China. However, in the second half of the year, the impact of the sharp drop in supply brought about by the earthquake in Japan will gradually disappear, and traditional caustic soda exporters will resume their supply, while the traditional off-season consumption will also restrain the high operating prices in the first half of the year.
- Downstream demand steadily expanded In the first half of this year, many industries downstream of caustic soda recovered significantly, including the rapidly growing alumina industry, which still has new projects put into production. However, the demand capacity of multi-industries such as light industry, chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, metallurgy, rare earth, petroleum, electric power, water treatment, and military industry is in a stable stage. It remains to be seen whether the new capacity of caustic soda can be formed.
——The high cost of operation Because the energy consumption in the process of caustic soda electrolysis is large, it is very sensitive to changes in the price of electricity and other factors. In the near future, the country will inevitably further strengthen the management of resources and energy such as coal, electricity and oil. High-cost raw material procurement will continue to play its role in the second half of the year.
At the same time, the state's policies on energy conservation, emission reduction and industrial upgrading will continue to directly or indirectly affect the caustic soda market, which will affect the production and price of caustic soda.
